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Lodestone Communications

Lodestone General Election 2019 Barometer

To help you make sense of the results in specific seats as they come in on election night, Lodestone have produced their General Election 2019 Barometer. This will help you to understand what the results mean as they begin to trickle in throughout the evening on 12 December.

The top half of the table, above the STATUS QUO bar across the middle, shows Conservative 'attack seats' currently held by other parties. The further up the table, the larger swing required for the Conservatives to the take the seat. The target rich regions of the Midlands and the North, where the Conservatives are hoping to make dramatic gains in 'Leave' and traditionally Labour voting areas, are on the right-hand the side of the table. The grey bars running across the table show the scale of the majority, for indicative purposes only. If ALL the 'attack seats' up to that point were won on a *uniform national swing* to the Conservatives across England, Scotland and Wales - although this won't be achieved consistently on the night.

The bottom half of the table, below the STATUS QUO bar across the middle, shows Conservative 'defence seats'. In this half, the further down the table, the larger the swing required by the challenger party to take the seat from the Conservatives. This Conservatives will want to minimise their losses in this half of the table where they are still vulnerable in places - particularly to the SNP in Scotland, and to the Lib Dems (in the event of significant tactical voting) in London, the South, and the South West - so as not to eat into any potential majority built up by gaining seats elsewhere.

* denotes constituencies where the Lib Dems are the challenger
^ denotes constituencies where the SNP are the challenger
= denotes constituencies where a former Conservative MP is contesting the seat as an Independent
** denotes a Conservative seat at 2017 that was taken by the Lib Dems in a by-election

In reality the swings across the country, and within regions, will vary considerably, and as in 2017, progress may be very patchy – throwing up both shock defeats in the upper reaches of the Barometer, as well as surprising survivals for those with wafer thin majorities who, on the face of it, look very vulnerable.

By running your cursor over seats in the North and Midlands, working up from the central STATUS QUO bar, you will highlight three purely indicative scenarios shaded in different colours that could play out over the course of the night. Given that a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome (according to the polls), the three scenarios we have outlined show where the Tories would expect to gain seats on the basis that they are likely to have more electoral success in certain regions of the country such as West Midlands and the North East.

If all the seats within the area highlighted in RED changed hands (gaining some seats, largely from Labour; losing other seats to the SNP in Scotland), the Conservatives would fall just short of an overall majority.

If all the seats within the area highlighted in AMBER changed hands, the Conservatives would gain a majority of almost 30 seats.

If all the seats within the area highlighted in GREEN changed hands, the Conservatives would gain a majority of over 50 seats.

Majority % Scotland London South West South & East Wales East Midlands West Midlands North West Yorks H & NE
------ 21 Erith&Thamesm’d Ellesmere Port&N Redcar
Sunderland C
20 Newport East Lancashire West Newcastle u T N
19 Brighton K’town Chesterfield Walsall South Leigh Tynemouth
Stockton North
18 Brentford & Isl. W Bromwich E
Birmingham Erd
Warrington North
Stalybridge & H
17 Ilford North Wirral South
Worsley & Eccles S
Blyth Valley
Durham NW
16 Coventry NW Oldham E & Sad.
15 Dundee East
Ross Skye & Loch.
Dwyfor Meirion’d Coventry South City of Chester Batley & Spen
Bradford South
14 Twickenham Birmingham Edg Burnley
Heywood & M’ton
Conservative majority of 140+
13 Ynys Mon Lancaster & F’wd Sedgefield
12 Eltham Plymouth S & D Newport West Chorley
11 Bath Wolver’ton NE
W Bromwich E
Wirral West
10 Clwyd South
Alyn & Deeside
Bolsover Stoke on T C Bury South Don Valley
Conservative majority of 100+
9 Inverness N B & S Dagenham & R Bridgend
Birmingham N
8 Croydon Central
Enfield S’gate
Bury North
7 Ayrshire N & A Bristol NW Cardiff North Bolton NE Scunthorpe
Conservative majority of 70+
6 Kingston & Surb. Norfolk North Gower Weaver Vale
Blackpool South
Rother Valley
Great Grimsby
5 Reading East Vale of Clwyd
4 Wrexham Stoke on T N
Wolver’ton SW
3 Battersea High Peak
Derby North
Warrington South Wakefield
Conservative majority of 30+
2 Argyll & Bute
Ayrshire Central
Edinburgh SW
Carshalton & Wal. Eastbourne
Portsmouth S
Lincoln Warwick & Lea Penistone & Sto.
1 Stroud Ipswich
Oxford W & Ab.
Peterborough Westm’land & L Stockton South
Colne Valley
Bishop Auckland
Conservative majority of 1+
<1 Lanark & Ham W
Perth & N P’shire
Kensington Canterbury Ashfield Newcastle-u-L
Dudley North
Barrow & F’ness
Crewe & N’wich
      <1 Stirling^ Richmond Park*
Chipping Barnet
St Ives* S’hampton Itchen
Hastings & Rye
Preseli Pem’shire Pudsey
1 Norwich North Aberconwy Broxtowe Stoke on T S
Bolton West Calder Valley
2 Hendon Milton Keynes S Northampton N
Northampton S
Pendle Middlesbro S &CE
3 Finchley & GG
Harrow East
Camborne & R Milton Keynes N
Morecambe & L
Morley & Outw’d
4 Gordon^ Cheltenham*
Swindon South
Crawley Vale of Glamorg. Corby Worcester Blackpool N & C
5 Chingford & WG Reading West Derbyshire NE Scarborough & W
6 Ayr, Carrick & C^
Ochil & S Perth^
Truro & Falmouth Stevenage Walsall North Carlisle
Rossendale & D
7 Devon North* Carmarthen. & PS Loughborough Shipley
8 Moray^
Renfrewshire W^
Banff & Buchan^
C of London & W Filton & B Stoke Clwyd West Cheadle*
9 Worthing East & S Erewash
10 Aberdeen South^
Dumfries & G^
Gloucester Lewes*
St Albans*
Uxbridge & SR
11 Plymouth M Rochford & S W Shrewsbury & A
Halesowen &RR
12 Wells* Hazel Grove*
13 Devon East Rushcliffe South Ribble
14 Cornwall N* WelwynHatfield Stafford York Outer
15 Ab’shire W&K^ Swindon North
Harlow Macclesfield
16 Bournem’th E Basingstoke Monmouth Rugby
17 Bournem’th W Waveney Winchester* Cannock Chase
18+ Dumfries. C & T^
Berwicksh, R & S^
Sutton & Chm* Thornbury&Yate*
Taunton Deane*
SW Herts=
Brecon & Rad.**
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
Plaid Cymru
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