Insight Type: Insight

Stood outside the main hall of the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham where Reform held its summer conference at the weekend, two members discussed their views on the state of their Party: “we’ve been told we’re not allowed to upset people, screw that let’s upset people.” “That’s what we’re here for” the other quipped.

Whilst it is clear that the leadership of Reform want to professionalise their outfit, many in their ranks are still more comfortable with the beer hall rally they have been so used to over the last few years. So much so that during the controversial policy debates, there was an opportunity to take a photo with Nigel Farage in a completely separate part of the conference venue. This was evidently choreography, not coincidence.

Fundamentally, this is the identity crisis Reform is facing. Whilst Farage used his speech to try and establish them as a party of Government, there are certain things that they still can’t and won’t shake off. Lucy Connolly, convicted of stirring up racial hatred in the aftermath of the Southport attack, appeared on the main stage, as did controversial doctor Aseem Malhotra, who claimed an ‘eminent oncologist’ had said that the Covid vaccine was a ‘significant factor in the cancer of members of royal family’.

As they rise in the polls, how they navigate the wishes of their core base versus what the wider electorate want will be a delicate balancing act. Ahead of the last General Election, this was what Keir Starmer called his “ming vase strategy”. As they try and transform themselves – with the launch of the department for the preparation of government – will Farage and his acolytes exercise a similar type of strategic caution, and will that be enough for their membership?

In the wake of Angela Rayner MP’s resignation as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Labour Leader over her tax affairs, the Prime Minister has moved swiftly to try to reassert control of the political narrative, initiating a significant reshuffle of senior Cabinet roles. The reshuffle sees changes such as David Lammy MP appointed as the Deputy Prime Minister and moved to Justice Secretary, while Yvette Cooper MP leaves her role as Home Secretary in a move to the Foreign Office. Shabana Mahmood MP, formerly Justice Secretary, assumes the challenging Home Office brief at a time of mounting pressure over small boats, asylum hotel closures, and recent unrest. And this reshuffle marks a historic first: all three great offices of state, the most senior and historically significant posts in the Cabinet, will now be held by women.

Further changes may continue to be announced into the evening, and the Labour Party has confirmed that it will meet shortly to agree the timetable and procedural guidelines for the election of a new Deputy Leader.

Some Westminster watchers are fond of saying things like ‘there’s no-one quite like Angela’. When they do so, they are telling on themselves.

In truth there are millions of people like Angela Rayner. Brought up in a chaotic home, written off in school despite their obvious intelligence, looked down upon for establishing their entry into adult life through a pregnancy rather than a degree. Her success in breaking out of the life our society handed her, and into the highest political office, is unusual. But that is both a tribute to her talents and self-belief and something of a rebuke to our pretensions to meritocracy.

It is not for a political note like this to linger on the ins and outs of the scandal that sees Rayner resign as Secretary of State for Communities, Housing and Local Government, Deputy Labour Leader and Deputy Prime Minister but rather to consider the political implications of what has happened.

Firstly, whilst some in Starmer’s team may be foolish enough to see this as some kind of political scalping, this is not good news for the Prime Minister. Not only has this story wiped his ‘reset’ from collective attention and memory (not that it was ever likely to set the world on fire) the loss of his Deputy PM leaves Starmer without any standard-bearer on the soft left of his party. It was Angela that was the champion workers’ rights, Angela who pursued social housing as a hefty part of the new builds we need, Angela who kept the red(ish) flag flying here. And it was Angela that saved the Prime Minister from total defeat on welfare – reassuring true Labour waverers that it wasn’t quite as bad as all that. Minus Angela, Starmer’s already tenuous grasp of his own backbenchers – of what they feel and think and why they’re in this awful job in the first place – is further weakened. As is his capacity to persuade them.

Today, the Government announced the details of its 10 Year Health Plan for England. Promising the ‘most ambitious transformation of the NHS since it was created’, Health and Social Care Secretary Rt Hon Wes Streeting MP has today provided additional clarity on the future direction of England’s Health Service.

Despite having faced an uncertain first year in office, health reform and delivery remains an area where the Labour Government has a distinct advantage, both in its messaging and policy. This time a year ago, NHS satisfaction rates were at an all-time low while A&E queues had more than doubled during the previous fourteen years of Tory rule. Using September’s Darzi Review – which revealed the sheer extent of the NHS’ current failings – as justification for the pace of change planned, today’s announcement continues much of the Government’s existing messaging in the sector: if the NHS doesn’t reform quickly, it will die.

The Government has established an impressive record on health. According to administration statistics, 4.2 million additional appointments have been made, waiting lists are at their lowest level in two years, and 1,900 GPs have been recruited since October. All of this has been bolstered by the 2.8% funding boost the NHS revealed at the Spending Review. They are under no illusions, however, that more needs to be done. In line with the messaging since the General Election, today’s announcements reaffirm that change in the NHS will come in three policy transitions: From hospital to community, from analogue to digital and from sickness to prevention.

The first area of change, from hospital to community, is perhaps where the Government’s most consequential announcements can be found, in the form of new Neighbourhood Health Centres. Intended to bring care into local communities, convene professionals into patient-centred teams and end fragmentation, the centres will attempt to free up capacity at general practices and hospitals. As part of this wider commitment to community-centred care, the share of expenditure on hospital care will fall, with proportionally greater investment going into out of-hospital care.

The Government also sees technology as a key enabler in delivering change. The Plan promises to make the ‘NHS the most artificial-intelligence -enabled care system in the world’. Most of the reforms to tech, will come on the access side, with flagship changes to the NHS App. Notably, patients will be able to book additional appointments, communicate with professionals, receive advice and draft or view their care plan in the App. By 2028, they’ll even be able to choose their preferred provider, hold consultations and access data on long-term conditions, or vaccinations.

On the prevention side, perhaps the most nebulous element of today’s announcement, as well as the already announced reforms to tobacco purchasing, junk food advertising and weight-loss medication, the Plan also points out the Government’s expansion of free school meals and update to school food standards. They will also introduce a new genomics population health service, by the end of the decade to identify early-stage cases for intervention.

Alongside these three strands, the NHS will also operate under a New Delivery Model. The headquarters of the NHS and the Department itself will be combined – to reduce headcount by 50%. Integrated Care Boards meanwhile will become the strategic commissioners of local healthcare services and new targets for 2% yearly productivity gains have been set. In a move which may raise eyebrows on the left of the party, embedded into the latter half of the document, the Plan re-affirms that private contracts will be sought to deliver new digital platforms and confirms that Public Private Partnerships will be trailed for new Neighbourhood Health Centres – ahead of a final decision at the Autumn Budget.

There is a degree of political consensus on the Plan with Shadow Health and Social Care Secretary Rt Hon Edward Argar MP saying it was the “right” thing to do. He did however raise concerns that the reforms outlined are “sketchy on some of the details of delivery”, including on staffing and on social care. In a similar fashion to the recent Industrial Strategy, today’s Health Plan doesn’t provide many new funding settlements. It does, however, provide a sense of clear direction where this Government sees its priorities laying, in an area where it can – and has to – deliver on its promise for ‘Change’.

The Government today launched its new Trade Strategy, the first since the UK left the EU in 2020 and therefore, the first delivered from Westminster and Whitehall in almost half a century. It comes as the UK attempts to steer its own route through some of the most turbulent economic currents in living memory without EU support, while the Labour Party simultaneously tries to assert its agenda against an equally difficult domestic backdrop.

Framed within Labour’s ‘Plan for Change’, the £85bn strategy aims to revitalise the UK’s trade performance, which has been lagging behind that of other G7 nations. Designed to unlock opportunities worth £5bn for UK exporters and expand UK Export Finance (UKEF)’s capacity to £80bn, it seeks to deliver economic growth while aligning with national priorities such as enhancing green energy and supporting small businesses.

In the 100-page document, a joint statement from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Jonathan Reynolds MP and the Minister for Trade Policy and Economic Security, Douglas Alexander MP stated that the UK will take a “hard-headed approach” to trade diplomacy. The Strategy seeks to support the economy amid global turbulence stemming from Trump’s tariff wars and is underpinned by a commitment to “pragmatic patriotism,” aiming to boost high-growth sectors while embracing the free market.

Pledging to make the UK “the most connected nation in the world” and to protect vital domestic industries from global shocks, Prime Minister, Keir Starmer declared this morning at the British Chambers of Commerce Annual Conference that the new Strategy is agile, targeted, and responsive to the global landscape.

Delivering on a key manifesto promise and a Green Paper originally released in October 2024, the Government has today published its Industrial Strategy; a cornerstone 10-year plan to support the wider growth mission and seize high potential opportunities across the economy.

The Strategy has come at a pivotal time; just the week after the Infrastructure Strategy and two weeks after the Spending Review – two announcements which aimed to underline the significant boost Labour has given to the long-term capital budgets of key departments. The Government will be hoping that these, together with today’s Strategy, will help to boost business confidence and demonstrate a distinct Labour vision to voters.

In line with the Green Paper launched last year, the Strategy identifies eight key sectors (IS-8), each with high potential growth capacities and each being on average 27% more productive than the rest of the economy. These are: Advanced Manufacturing; Creative Industries; Clean Energy; Defence; Digital & Technologies; Financial; Life Sciences and Professional & Business. Each sector will receive their own formalised and individual sectoral plan and, at the time of writing 3 of sectoral plans have not be publicised.

On top of these, “Foundational Industries” have also been dropped into the Strategy as an unofficial additional sector, a move that has political, as well as economic and policy, significance. With Reform having also pushed for a more interventionist approach to championing UK industry, Labour is keen to highlight its work in industrial supply chains, such as steel, where the hoped for benefits will be felt in seats where the two parties are going head-to-head.

Not only are these sectors highly productive, innovative and leading UK exporters, they are also strategically important across the wider economy. To support this, today’s announcement also looks to tackle key cross-sectoral issues such as skills policy, which will be aligned with the IS-8 through £1.2bn’s worth of additional investment – £187m of which will go on AI upskilling in schools and £100m of which will go towards engineering.

Today, the Government published its 10-Year Infrastructure Strategy, promising a fundamental reset in how the UK plans, funds, and delivers major infrastructure. It is backed by at least £725bn in public funding over the next decade and framed as a core pillar of its “decade of national renewal.”

Unveiled by Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones MP following last week’s Spending Review, the Strategy aims to hardwire stability and efficiency into a system long criticised for delays, cost overruns, and political short-termism. The publication follows yesterday’s intervention from the Secretary of State for Transport Heidi Alexander MP on HS2, describing a “litany of failures” and accepting all recommendations from the James Stewart review, making a coordinated push to restore credibility with regards to infrastructure delivery.

The flagship headline is the announcement of £9bn a year to tackle the maintenance backlog in hospitals, schools, and courts – rising to £10bn annually by 2034-35 – as part of a wider £725bn funding envelope. Sitting inside the Treasury, the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) will oversee the implementation of the Strategy and advise on go/no-go decisions for major projects. Also promised is an updated online pipeline dashboard and digital tools to help bolster the ability of the private sector to plan, skill, and procure for upcoming infrastructure projects in specific locations.

Early industry reaction suggests cautious optimism, especially in response to the general shift to longer-term planning and clearer funding decisions. From across the Chamber, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Richard Fuller MP broadly welcomed a more joined-up approach to infrastructure delivery but criticised the Government for what he called a lack of detail on funding decisions. Meanwhile, sectors including health, education, justice, and local transport stand to gain the most from this shift, after years of fragmented funding.

The Chancellor wrapped up her Spending Review by sayingshe had made her choices, and she has chosen national renewal. But Rachel Reeves will also be hoping that today’s statement is a chance for her to reset, with the long-awaited review an opportunity to shift the tone – and hopefully the polling – for the Chancellor and for the Government. She acknowledged that many people across the country are yet to feel the benefits of Labour being in charge but said that her choices are a reflection of the choices of working people. With headline announcements around defence, record investment in social and affordable housing, long-term infrastructure spending and an extra £29bn a year for the day-to-day running of the NHS, the Chancellor is hoping that this renewal will start to be felt.

Several announcements had been trailed in advance, including the U-turn on Winter Fuel payments, allowing Reeves to use today’s statement to focus on the priorities of security, economic growth and the nations’ health. There was an emphasis on investing in energy to shore up national security, with recommitments to Sizewell C, small modular reactors, and new announcements on carbon capture projects. The Government is also looking to back tech, with additional money for R&D and £2bn for their AI action plan. Whilst the Department for Health was the biggest winner, other public services will benefit, with the core schools’ budget in England set to reach £69.5bn by 2029. Elsewhere, looking to cut costs, the Chancellor committed to ending the use of hotels for asylum seekers in this Parliament and said she would be relentless in driving out Government inefficiencies.

Though Reeves took time to thank her Cabinet colleagues, some will be feeling more thankful than others. Whilst overall spending on Departments is set to increase by 2.3% over inflation, for some there will be a real-term cut, with Home Office spending down 1.7% a year to 2028-29, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Officelosing 6.9% and the Department for Transport down 5%. This comes after weeks of tense negotiations between Departments and the Treasury, where some managed to argue their case more convincingly than others.

Yesterday’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) had been a long time coming. Commissioned nearly a year ago as a “root and branch review” of the UK’s armed forces, the announcement underscores Keir Starmer’s ambition to overhaul the State’s delivery capacity. Emphasising that the review was intended to ensure the transition to “war-fighting readiness” in a time of global uncertainty, the Prime Minister has thrown his support behind large-scale reform and investment aimed at modernizing the UK’s military capabilities, while reinforcing our international commitments to NATO. While there is widespread support for the tone and aims of the announcement, it was not without its critics over a perceived absence of funding details and lack of clarity on some targets.

The review, presented by an independent panel including Lord Robertson, Dr Fiona Hill, and General Richard Barrons, contains 62 recommendations, all of which Starmer has accepted. These span a wide range of issues, from new munitions factories and submarines to cyber resilience and military housing. Taken together, they signal that, for the first time in at least twenty years, there is a new permissive environment for defence procurement in the UK.

The caveat, of course, is that while there were significant promises on funding and on shortening timelines, details on these were decidedly murky.

Many of the SDR’s announcements had been trailed for weeks, if not months; the Government revealed in February that spending in the sector would rise to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027. However, pressure still remains over the date at which the holy grail of 3% will be reached – something Defence Secretary John Healey MP has said will happen “no doubt” before 2034.

The Prime Minister and his team are well aware of the economic and electoral traps they will walk into if they promise to reach this figure at a specific date, but appearing to make unfunded promises is also a risk in itself. Seeming to ‘kick the can down the road’ on funding is at odds with the well-founded urgency which set the tone for the Prime Minister’s speech, while targets such as ‘up to 12’ new attack submarines could uncharitably be interpreted as being likely to end up at the lower end of that scale.

Speaking at BAE Systems’ shipyard in Govan, Glasgow, Starmer also championed the so called “defence dividend,” the economic boost expected from increased defence spending. Citing the 10,000 jobs six new munitions factories and a £15bn boost in the UK’s Sovereign Warhead Programme would create, Starmer clearly sees the sector as vital part of his mission towards growth and increased industrial capacity. Framing the spending boost as “military Keynesianism”, he’s also keen to ward off those to his left who have complained ahead of next week’s spending review that he and the Chancellor are not being bold enough on spending.

Starmer framed yesterday’s review as positioning the UK as the fastest military innovator in the world. Recognising that changing threats – particularly in cyber and from Russia – had warped traditional notions of national security he added that “the front line, if you like, is here”. To this end, he focused less on traditional ‘boots on the ground’ and instead promised the creation of a cyber command to lead offensive cyber operations as well as a re-established Home Guard to protect critical infrastructure. Alongside new money, the Prime Minister has endorsed the most radical shake-up of defence governance in a generation, abolishing the Levene reforms, cutting procurement timelines, and establishing a Military Strategic HQ with direct authority over service chiefs.

Internationally, the review marks a clear reaffirmation of the UK’s commitment to NATO and multilateral defence cooperation. In an era where scepticism toward international institutions is gaining traction, particularly on the political right, Starmer has doubled down on alliance-based security. His embrace of NATO, reinforced by recent moves toward deeper European defence integration, draws a sharp contrast with the isolationist rhetoric of figures like Nigel Farage. Yet this alignment comes with diplomatic nuance: while strengthening ties with European allies, the Prime Minister must also navigate the sensitivities of the transatlantic relationship, ensuring that Britain’s strategic pivot doesn’t unsettle Washington.

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