Mayoral and Local Elections 2025
Cliched though it may be, the rolling results coming from the local elections demonstrate that the fundamental make-up of British politics has changed. Though the full picture is unlikely to be known until after 7pm this evening, the overnight dribs and drabs from the Mayoral elections and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election paint a difficult picture for all of the main parties.
They say a week is a long time in politics, so 4 years feels like an eternity. Turning back the clock to these sets of elections in 2021, the Conservatives unexpectedly outdid expectations, Reform UK was in its infancy and in the face of a humiliating by-election defeat in Hartlepool, Keir Starmer prepared to, but was talked out of, resigning. Now, it is clearer more than ever that both Labour and Conservatives face a new challenge that isn’t just each other.
Overnight, Labour narrowly held onto the Doncaster and North Tyneside Mayoralties, respectively, whilst Reform gained their first Mayor in former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns in Greater Lincolnshire. They have also taken control of Durham, Lincolnshire and Staffordshire county councils. Meanwhile, in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election – caused by the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury over his assault conviction – Sarah Pochin became the first female Reform MP, winning by just six votes – the smallest by-election victory since 1945.
These results might be remarkable, but they are not unexpected. For months, No.10 has recognised the challenge Reform poses to their vote. In the week leading up to the by-election, the No.10 communications grid was filled with carefully-curated announcements to try and shore up their vote – on NHS waiting lists, talking tough on asylum seekers and fly-tipping. Yet there will now be disquiet about this lack of cut through and No.10 Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves are likely to be blamed for the losses.
Some in the Government may take solace in holding onto the West of England Mayoralty in the face of a squeeze between an insurgent Green Party on the left and the Reform candidacy of the Bad Boy of Brexit Aaron Banks on the right. But Labour MPs elected in 2024 will now be very anxious about the future of their seats on the basis of the results. Whoever fronts the next meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on behalf of the Labour Leadership will be expecting a very rough ride. If Keir Starmer swerves that job, it will be only be seen as weakness.
Meanwhile, as we await the announcements of the results of most of the local elections, the Conservative Party will be anticipating huge losses. A leaked memo, shown to Kemi Badenoch, predicts that the Conservatives will lose in excess of 700 seats, with Reform suggested to gain 500. Squeezed by Reform in some parts of the country and the Liberal Democrats in others, how to build a coalition that appeals to both will be as much of a problem for them as it is for Labour.
Reform is generally understood to be a series of individuals around one strong leader. Yet, this result gives them the opportunity to coalesce these newly elected politicians into a serious political force. That is still a very difficult task, but both Keir and Kemi’s people understand that Reform is now a serious and more credible existential threat.