If you’d asked Nigel Farage earlier this year how he’d wanted his Party Conference to go, there are a few things he would likely have left off his list.
A donations scandal that continues to snowball, despite his attempt to get ahead of the allegations over the summer via a self-imposed by-election in Clacton.
A decline in the polls, brought into sharp focus by another by-election – this time in Dover, where the presence of Rupert Lowe’s hardline Restore Party split the right-wing vote for a shock Green Party victory.
Crowd protests – usually a staple of any Farage policy speech – turning nasty in the form of physical violence from a party member.
Farage, as is his wont, responded by going on the offensive.
His leader’s speech was deliberately light on policy: stopping small boat crossings, cutting energy bills by £250 a year and ending net zero “lunacy.” All pretty standard fare by now. Instead, this year’s address intended to demonstrate how only a Reform Government would possess the fight and determination to turn around Britain’s declining fortunes.
Taking a swipe at Andy Burnham’s assertion that he’ll need 10 years in power to implement his agenda, Farage said meaningful change would come in the first 100 days under Reform. He pledged that “Parliament will sit, if necessary, for 24 hours a day, for six days a week until we pass the necessary legislation,” and that at the end of the 100 days, low-performing Ministers would be sacked.
Potential blockers also came into his sights, including old favourites the ECHR and civil service, plus a shot across the bows for the House of Lords, who were threatened with abolition if they block Reform’s agenda.
An agreement signed this week with France’s hardright National Rally party regarding small boat returns was paraded as evidence that Reform can act where Labour has failed. National Rally are currently leading the polls for the French Presidential elections in April.
So, how did it all land?
The atmosphere amongst party members across the conference remained jovial and hard-nosed. There is a dedicated core of support for the Party that will take more than a Channel 4 sting to undermine.
The inner sanctum, however, are genuinely concerned. The Channel 4 investigation has led to the loss of senior aide Dan Jukes and Head of Policy James Orr. The remainder of Farage’s top team are grappling with the prospect of a possible police investigation on top of the ongoing inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards over the £5m undeclared donation from Christopher Harborne earlier this year.
There is real concern that more scandals are coming down the line that will further dent Reform’s credibility, ability to operate and, crucially, deny them the general election victory that they so confidently predicted after sweeping the May local elections.
Since then, Reform have lost to Labour in the Makerfield by-election and GMCA mayoral election. Their defeat in the council by-election in Dover, spurred by a rise in popularity for Restore, has spooked the party’s strategists.
So, is there a chance Farage could go? In short, not yet. Bombastic interventions across conference by Zia Yusuf and Richard Tice suggest that both fancy themselves as his replacement (Lee Anderson, by contrast, appears to have given up entirely), but both will have a job to do to convince the membership they’ve got the profile, charisma and stature to capture public imagination in the same way Farage has.
Farage, then, remains in control of the ship, but if this conference has shown anything, it’s that there are plenty more storms on the horizon.
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