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Empire of Dirt

With the dust settled on the local elections, all eyes are fixed on this parliament’s next, final, electoral showdown: we are on the downward slope towards a General Election. How the outcome of the last poll affects each party’s planning for the next tells us something about what to expect from them over the next twelve months.

First, Labour. The locals have reassured the Labour Party that this government is as widely despised as opinion polling has implied. The Conservatives remain deeply unpopular and this translates into votes against them. A population that has woken up to the potential of tactical voting, as post-referendum Brits have, can very efficiently maximise hatred for a particular party or outcome. Where Labour was best placed to oust or stop Tories, voters voted for them. Where it was clearly others, others were backed.

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December 15th 2021

Run to the hills

Prime Ministers always enjoy de jure authority - over their country, over their party. But it is an office that is impossible to maintain if you lose de facto authority. And for any Prime Minister...
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Knned
December 8th 2021

Savoy Truffle

“It’s all baked in.” That’s the line you’ll hear from lots of very clever political observers and commentators when it comes to Boris Johnson’s personal improprieties. The theory runs that the public know that Johnson...
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November 4th 2021

The Man in the Mirror

This morning the Prime Minister is, apparently, asking his aides how they could have put him in the terrible position in which he finds himself. Having twisted dozens of arms in order to spare Owen...
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The House Alaways Wins
September 17th 2021

The House Always Wins

It is easy to mock a Cabinet reshuffle that results in Dominic Raab being appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Nadine Dorries taking the reins at Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. To the interested outsider Boris...
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May 12th 2021

Face Off

In our note last week - centred on the result of the Hartlepool by-election and emerging English local results - we highlighted the structural shift occurring in Labour’s vote and drew a comparison with post-Indyref...
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