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Nowhere to run

What is the point of Boris Johnson? What is he for? That’s the question that a lot of Tory MPs are asking themselves today - as the results in Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield sink in.

It’s not just that the Conservatives have lost two seats. That happens to governments in by-elections. It is to be expected. It is the emblematic nature of the seats that have been lost that matters. Wakefield is precisely the sort of Northern, ex-Labour, pro-Brexit place that delivered for the Tories their biggest majority in a generation. Tiverton & Honiton is precisely the sort of affluent, rural, well-healed place upon which the Conservatives have long been able to depend; it even returned a Tory in 1997. Both sides of the Tory electoral coalition are crumbling. So, what is the point of Boris Johnson?

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May 12th 2021

Face Off

In our note last week - centred on the result of the Hartlepool by-election and emerging English local results - we highlighted the structural shift occurring in Labour’s vote and drew a comparison with post-Indyref...
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May 8th 2021

Shape Shifter

There’s no way of dressing up these results - as they continue to trickle in - as anything other than a disaster for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Yes, the vaccine programme has given the Government...
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April 16th 2021

Bad Blood

There is a war being fought at the heart of Downing Street and it is being fought on multiple fronts. In some ways the sheer level of mess involved helps the Prime Minister. When a...
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March 3rd 2021

Waiting for my man

In our pre-budget note, we said that Rishi Sunak’s ideological and political interests were pulling in different directions and that - therefore - relative stasis was the likely result. And to a certain extent, the...
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February 23rd 2021

Meet me at the crossroads

On Monday, the Prime Minister laid out his plan for unlocking the country. It was not - obviously - the first time that he had made such an announcement. We had one in Spring last...
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January 22nd 2021

The Angel & The Gambler

A lot has been written about the character of Boris Johnson - both the one that he plays and the one that he is. Our Prime Minister possesses personality, an attribute not immediately obvious in...
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