June 7th 2022
The Tide is High
Luck is a thing that is there until it isn’t. And today Boris Johnson’s luck began to evaporate. He won, yes. But he won like you win when the doctor tells you that it’s months...
April 22nd 2022
Lazy Afternoons
One of Boris Johnson’s secret weapons is his ability to ‘sit it out’. There’s not a lot to this, of course. But it is difficult to pull off nonetheless. Crises have their own magnetic power...
February 4th 2022
Sad, Sad Situation
The human drama of our politics has seldom been so raw as last night’s events. Munira Mirza is not simply a departing aid. Her utility to Johnson went far beyond her impressive grasp of policy...
January 24th 2022
Bad choices
It is not just Boris Johnson’s career that is on the line this week, it is the immediate electoral future of the Conservative Party. Many Tory MPs are waiting for Sue Gray to report before...
December 17th 2021
Last Christmas?
You win some, you lose some. And for governments that have been in office for over a decade, when it comes to midterm by-elections, more often than not; you lose some. Why, then, does the...
December 16th 2021
That's me in the corner
In politics, one of the benefits of winning - and being in government - is that your successes are there for all to see. The downside, of course, is that so are your failings. Our...
December 15th 2021
Run to the hills
Prime Ministers always enjoy de jure authority - over their country, over their party. But it is an office that is impossible to maintain if you lose de facto authority. And for any Prime Minister...
December 8th 2021
Savoy Truffle
“It’s all baked in.” That’s the line you’ll hear from lots of very clever political observers and commentators when it comes to Boris Johnson’s personal improprieties. The theory runs that the public know that Johnson...
November 4th 2021
The Man in the Mirror
This morning the Prime Minister is, apparently, asking his aides how they could have put him in the terrible position in which he finds himself. Having twisted dozens of arms in order to spare Owen...
September 17th 2021
The House Always Wins
It is easy to mock a Cabinet reshuffle that results in Dominic Raab being appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Nadine Dorries taking the reins at Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. To the interested outsider Boris...
May 12th 2021
Face Off
In our note last week - centred on the result of the Hartlepool by-election and emerging English local results - we highlighted the structural shift occurring in Labour’s vote and drew a comparison with post-Indyref...
May 8th 2021
Shape Shifter
There’s no way of dressing up these results - as they continue to trickle in - as anything other than a disaster for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Yes, the vaccine programme has given the Government...
April 16th 2021
Bad Blood
There is a war being fought at the heart of Downing Street and it is being fought on multiple fronts. In some ways the sheer level of mess involved helps the Prime Minister. When a...
March 3rd 2021
Waiting for my man
In our pre-budget note, we said that Rishi Sunak’s ideological and political interests were pulling in different directions and that - therefore - relative stasis was the likely result. And to a certain extent, the...
February 23rd 2021
Meet me at the crossroads
On Monday, the Prime Minister laid out his plan for unlocking the country. It was not - obviously - the first time that he had made such an announcement. We had one in Spring last...